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گزارش بازار ساخت‌وساز در تهران و شهرهای بزرگ ایران در اسفند ماه ۱۴۰۲

مقدمه و کلیات بازار

بازار ساخت‌وساز در تهران و شهرهای بزرگ ایران در اسفند ۱۴۰۳ با تناقضات جالبی روبرو بود. از یک سو شاهد رشد قابل توجه در صدور پروانه‌های ساخت بودیم و از سوی دیگر، رکود عمیقی در بخش معاملات و اجرای پروژه‌ها مشاهده می‌شد. این وضعیت پیچیده ناشی از عوامل متعددی از جمله تورم بالا، افزایش هزینه‌های ساخت، سیاست‌های شهرداری و تغییر الگوی سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش مسکن بوده است.

## آمارهای کلیدی ساخت‌وساز در اسفند ۱۴۰۳

بر اساس آمارهای رسمی، در اسفند ۱۴۰۳ شاهد رشد ۳۵ درصدی صدور پروانه ساخت در تهران نسبت به مدت مشابه سال قبل بودیم. این در حالی است که این رشد در کل کشور حدود ۲۵ درصد گزارش شده است . سهم تهران از کل ساخت‌وساز کشور به ۱۳.۵ درصد رسید که افزایش قابل توجهی نسبت به سال گذشته محسوب می‌شود .

## تحلیل منطقه‌ای ساخت‌وساز در تهران

تحلیل منطقه‌ای تهران نشان می‌دهد که بیشترین فعالیت‌های ساخت‌وساز در مناطق جنوبی شهر (مناطق ۹ تا ۲۰) متمرکز بوده است. سهم این مناطق از کل پروانه‌های صادر شده در تهران از ۴۷ درصد در سال ۱۳۹۴ به ۵۶ درصد در سال ۱۴۰۳ افزایش یافته است . این تمرکز به چند دلیل بوده است:

۱. **تخفیف‌های ویژه در بافت فرسوده**: شهرداری تهران برای تشویق به نوسازی بافت‌های فرسوده در جنوب شهر، تخفیف‌های قابل توجهی در عوارض و مقررات ساخت‌وساز اعمال کرده است.

۲. **نقدشوندگی بالاتر**: قیمت پایین‌تر مسکن در جنوب تهران باعث شده این مناطق در شرایط رکود اقتصادی، تقاضای نسبی بیشتری داشته باشند.

۳. **منطقی بودن نسبت هزینه ساخت به قیمت فروش**: در بسیاری از شهرهای کوچک، هزینه ساخت از قیمت فروش پیشی گرفته، اما در جنوب تهران هنوز حاشیه سود مناسبی برای سازندگان وجود دارد .

## هزینه‌های ساخت و قیمت تمام شده

در اسفند ۱۴۰۳، قیمت تمام شده ساخت هر متر مربع واحد مسکونی با مصالح استاندارد به ۲۲ تا ۲۵ میلیون تومان رسید . این افزایش قابل توجه نسبت به سال قبل (۱۴۰۲) ناشی از رشد قیمت مصالح ساختمانی و افزایش دستمزد نیروی کار بوده است. برای مقایسه، هزینه ساخت در سال ۱۴۰۲ برای ساختمان‌های ۳ تا ۵ طبقه حدود ۱۰.۹ میلیون تومان بود که در ۱۴۰۳ به ۱۲.۵ میلیون تومان افزایش یافته است .

## وضعیت پروژه‌های نهضت ملی مسکن

پروژه‌های نهضت ملی مسکن در اسفند ۱۴۰۳ با چالش‌های متعددی روبرو بودند. اگرچه قیمت تمام شده ساخت در این پروژه‌ها کمتر از میانگین بازار گزارش شده، اما مشارکت شرکت‌های پیمانکاری در این پروژه‌ها کمتر از انتظارات بوده است . مشکلات پرداخت مطالبات شرکت‌های ساختمانی از سوی دولت نیز یکی از موانع اصلی توسعه این پروژه‌ها محسوب می‌شود.

## روند معاملات مسکن

در حالی که آمار ساخت‌وساز رشد نشان می‌داد، بازار معاملات مسکن در اسفند ۱۴۰۳ همچنان در رکود به سر می‌برد. قیمت متوسط هر مترمربع مسکن در تهران حدود ۱۰۰ میلیون تومان بود که برای یک کارگر با حداقل دستمزد (۷.۲ میلیون تومان در ماه)، خرید یک خانه ۱۰۰ متری حدود ۱۱۵ سال پس‌انداز نیاز داشت . این شکاف عمیق بین درآمدها و قیمت‌ها، تقاضای موثر را به شدت کاهش داده بود.

## پیش‌بینی‌ها و چشم‌انداز آینده

کارشناسان پیش‌بینی می‌کنند که با تداوم روند فعلی، بازار مسکن در ماه‌های آینده با چالش‌های بیشتری روبرو خواهد شد. افزایش هزینه‌های ساخت از یک سو و کاهش قدرت خرید مردم از سوی دیگر، می‌تواند منجر به تشدید رکود در این بازار شود . برخی تحلیلگران معتقدند تنها راه خروج از این وضعیت، اتخاذ سیاست‌های حمایتی هدفمند از سوی دولت و کاهش نرخ بهره تسهیلات مسکن است.

## جمع‌بندی و نتیجه‌گیری

وضعیت بازار ساخت‌وساز در تهران و شهرهای بزرگ ایران در اسفند ۱۴۰۳ را می‌توان چنین خلاصه کرد:

۱. رشد کمی در صدور پروانه‌های ساخت، به ویژه در تهران و مناطق جنوبی آن
۲. افزایش قابل توجه هزینه‌های ساخت و قیمت تمام شده مسکن
۳. تداوم رکود در بخش معاملات به دلیل کاهش قدرت خرید مردم
۴. تمرکز فعالیت‌های ساخت‌وساز در بافت‌های فرسوده و مناطق جنوبی تهران
۵. چالش‌های پیش‌روی پروژه‌های نهضت ملی مسکن
۶. نیاز مبرم به سیاست‌گذاری جدید برای خروج از رکود ساخت‌وساز

این شرایط نشان می‌دهد که اگرچه از نظر آماری رشد در صدور پروانه‌ها مشاهده می‌شود، اما بازار ساخت‌وساز همچنان با موانع ساختاری متعددی روبرو است که حل آنها نیازمند عزم ملی و سیاست‌گذاری‌های کلان است.

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    References:

    Steroid Tablets For Bodybuilding

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